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RevCast™: State and Local Government Revenue Forecasting:
Helping Governments Minimize Fiscal Risk

  • Prepare accurate monthly forecasts of taxes and other revenue
  • Link revenue expectations to forecasts of the regional economy
  • Track monthly revenue against target forecast ranges
  • Receive early warning of revenue shortfalls or surpluses
  • Reduce revenue-estimating volatility

RevCast, American Economics Group, Inc.'s (AEG's) custom-built revenue forecasting model, generates comprehensive and detailed monthly forecasts of collections from state or municipal tax structures. AEG's approach simultaneously accounts for the full interaction between each tax and key economic variable to forecast your entire revenue structure consistently and accurately.

A Complete Revenue Forecasting Environment
AEG will provide you with a complete revenue-forecasting environment that runs on your desktop computer using the latest EViews time series and modeling software. With RevCast we custom-build models specifically for your jurisdiction's revenue structure, incorporating your historical revenue data with our own comprehensive database of economic variables.

Easy-to-Run Models
Our models are not black boxes and do not require expensive additional work to adapt to common tax changes or tax proposals. We deliver all the equations and data with RevCast so there is no mystery component or complex linking. While the AEG staff is always ready to help, you will find that your own economists and analysts can easily run the models, accessing and modifying every component of RevCast.

With full model details available, you can trace the influence of variables and assumptions, alter them, and perform "what-if" analysis without restrictions. You can reverse the estimating procedure by varying inputs until you hit revenue targets to see what kind of economic environment would produce those results—a particularly useful feature for budget negotiations.

Customized for Your Jurisdiction
AEG will base each model on your historical data. We test and clean the data, taking into account historical tax changes, institutional factors, and other events that may have affected tax collections. Then we use our extensive model templates to customize the RevCast models to your data.

Once we have customized and thoroughly tested the RevCast equations for your jurisdiction, you are ready to produce forecasts for up to a five-year horizon.  RevCast creates monthly target ranges, which become the basis for a monthly tracking and early warning system to notify you of likely revenue shortfalls or surpluses.

There is nothing like RevCast on the market. No other product or service provides the same level of accuracy and detail, opening the black box to give you access to all the equations and model features. Use it in simple form to generate forecasts automatically or get under the hood and adjust any component you choose. A working tool customized to your revenue structure, RevCast is the best revenue forecasting model available.

RevCast is a trademark of American Economics Group, Inc.

EViews is a windows-based economic analysis software package of Quantitative Micro Software.


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