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Business Week, October 22, 2001:

"American Economics Group, a Washington-based consulting firm, calculates that even if the terrorist attack had not occurred, New York City, because of its mix of jobs, would have lost 2.5% of its employment in the current downturn, vs. a loss of 1.8% for the nation as a whole."

Dr. Michael K. Evans, AEG Chief Economist

The Associated Press, December 1, 2001:

"Economists believe the report on November unemployment, which comes out Friday, will be almost as bad, with an additional 300,000 Americans thrown out of work. . . .

"'The layoffs following the terrorist attacks exacerbated what had already become an ugly situation,' said Michael Evans, chief economist for American Economics Group."

The Washington Times, November 24, 2001:

"'The combination of larger deficits and concerns about higher inflation once the economy does turn around will push bond rates higher as soon as the first signs of recovery are visible,' said Michael K. Evans of American Economics Group."

The Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2001:

"'People don't really focus on the states because they're not one huge conglomerate like the federal government,' says Michael Evans, chief economist for American Economics Group, Inc., a Washington research firm. He estimates the slowing economy ultimately could force states to undertake as much as $75 billion worth of spending cuts or tax-rate increases. Mr. Evans says, 'That pretty much wipes out any stimulus package being discussed at the federal level.'"

Business Week, November 12, 2001:

"'The drop in profits will be greater than in any post-World War II recession--even though the decline in GDP is relatively modest,' says Michael K. Evans, chief economist of American Economics Group, Inc., in Washington, D.C."

The Associated Press, November 9, 2001:

"While many analysts believe the economy will begin to show signs of life by the spring, Michael Evans, chief economist at American Economics Group in Washington, said he was looking for the downturn to last through the first six months of next year, with economic growth declining this quarter and the next two at annual rates of about 2 percent. The economy turned negative with a 0.4 percent drop in activity in the July-September quarter.

"Evans said he believed the recession and a sluggish rebound would keep consumer prices rising by just 2 percent through next year and probably 2003. That would compare with a 3.4 percent increase in consumer prices last year." 

The Boston Globe, November 7, 2001:

"Michael Evans, chief economist at American Economics Group in Washington, said the Fed is feeling the pressure to buoy consumer confidence heading into the important holiday shopping season. A dismal December for retailers would only increase the problems for businesses and lead to more layoffs.

"'I think the federal funds rate will come down to 1 percent by the middle of next year,' Evans said. 'The economy is going to be very weak in the first half of 2002 and the Fed will have to keep cutting.'

". . . . 'We're just going to have to wait this one out,' Evans said. 'Unfortunately for Congress and unfortunately for all of us, there's no magic button to push.'" 

The Associated Press, November 5, 2001:

"'People don't know what is going to happen next,' said Michael Evans of American Economics Group, who predicted the GDP would drop at a rate of 4 percent in the current quarter. The traditional definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP."

Chicago Tribune, November 3, 2001:

"A separate survey of business establishments showed non-farm payrolls fell by 415,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 142,000 jobs, construction 30,000, and services a total of 241,000 despite a 24,000-job increase in government employment.

"'It's bad,' said Michael Evans, chief economist for American Economics Group, a consulting firm. 'In fact, it's unequivocally bad. The real situation is probably worse than they reported. Some people have been told they're going to be laid off and have been given some time to get off the payroll.'

". . . . Predicting a 7 percent unemployment rate next year, Evans said the focus should be on the consumer. Evans favors a six-month nationwide suspension of sales taxes, with the federal government reimbursing the states for their lost revenue. Some members of Congress favor a 10-day sales tax holiday, but Evans said more is needed to spur the economy."

San Francisco Chronicle, November 1, 2001:

"'The main thing is that things are going to get worse,' said Michael Evans, chief economist for American Economics Group, a Washington, D.C., consulting group.

"'(Business) spending is doing terribly, housing is starting to hit the skids, the export numbers are terrible,' Evans said. 'We are in a global recession. Add it all up and there is no good news on the horizon for at least a couple of quarters.'

"Evans predicted that the economy will shrink at a 1 or 2 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2001 and the first two quarters of 2002. The unemployment rate, currently 4.9 percent, could rise to 7 percent by the end of next year, he said."

Seattle Times, October 28, 2001:

"'Weak foreign markets will cause a decrease in U.S. exports, further depressing growth and contributing to a sluggish recovery,' said Michael Evans, an economist with American Economics Group, a Washington-based economic consulting firm. Evans is one of those economists who breaks with the consensus, forecasting an extended recession and a shallow recovery."

The New York Times, October 26, 2001:

"'There will be further rounds of layoffs,' predicted Michael K. Evans, the chief economist of American Economics Group, a consulting firm in Washington. In the current circumstances, he added, lower interest rates and taxes will not be enough to convince many companies to increase spending immediately.

"'There's no magic bullet,' Mr. Evans said."

The Associated Press, October 25, 2001:

"The Labor Department said the number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose to 504,000 last week, a level usually associated with recessions, while the total number of unemployed collecting benefits rose to an 18-year high of 3.65 million people, 66 percent above the level of a year ago.

"'These numbers leave no doubt that we are in a recession,' said Michael Evans, chief economist at American Economics Group, a Washington-based consulting firm.

". . . Evans said all of this stimulus would likely be overwhelmed for a while by cutbacks in consumer spending, triggered by the higher layoffs, and further drops in business investment."

The Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2001:

"Lower energy costs alone aren't enough to lift the economy out of recession. Michael Evans, the chief economist at American Economics Group, an economic consulting firm in Washington, says a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices would bump up economic growth by about half a percentage point. 'Compared to the recession we're in right now, that won't register very much,' he says."

Dr. Charles W. de Seve, AEG President

The Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2001:

"Washington, D.C.--despite worries that the terrorist attack on the Pentagon would scare off tourists--will withstand the recession better than the rest of the country, according to a ranking of state economies based on employment forecasts.

"Steady government jobs, a pickup in business for defense-related consultants and little exposure to manufacturing layoffs will hold the area's job loss to only 0.2% between the beginning of 2001 and mid-2002, says Charles W. de Seve, president of American Economics Group, the Washington economic consultants that did the ranking. 'Tourism is not as important in the economy,' Mr. de Seve says.

"In contrast, Nevada is projected to be the worst-performing economy because of its overwhelming dependence on tourism, suffering almost a 5.9% drop in jobs through the second or third quarter of next year, which American Economics says will be the trough of the recession depending on individual industry conditions. Generally, Great Plains and Western economies are expected to suffer fewer layoffs, partly because they have fewer manufacturers hit by the slowdown in business capital spending. Overall, the U.S. will suffer a 1.8% decline in employment, the forecast says."

The Detroit News, October 7, 2001:

"'Beyond the travel industry, the auto industry is going to be hurt worst,' said Charles de Seve, president of American Economics Group, a Washington-based economic forecasting company. 'We see unit sales falling from 16.6 million this year to 14.8 million in 2002.'

"He said Michigan will lose 2.5 percent of its workforce during the next year because of its strong ties to manufacturing. 'Capital spending and investment will fall. And consumer spending will fall. This will affect a lot of companies that Michigan has,' de Seve said. 'The exact thing that makes you strong in good times is giving you weakness now.'"

Los Angeles Times, October 6, 2001:

"'California won't go as deep as it did last time and, instead of suffering more than the rest of the country, will be right about at the national average,' said Charles W. de Seve, president of American Economics Group, a Washington consulting firm."

The Mercury News (San Jose), October 6, 2001:

"According to data released Friday by American Economics Group, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm, the state's employment will likely fall by 1.7 percent from the second quarter of this year to the second or third quarter of next year. That means the unemployment rate could reach 6.5 percent by this time next year, said Charles W. de Seve, president of American Economics Group.

"That's better than many states, which will likely see employment drop by as much as 6 percent, he said. Overall, California is in the middle of the pack in terms of anticipated job losses, he said.

"'This is a hit and a hit you wouldn't have had if the economy hadn't lost its confidence after the terrorist attack,' de Seve said."

Star Tribune (Minneapolis-St. Paul) , October 2, 2001:

"The Minnesota economy will shrink by 2.1 percent and rank near the back of the pack among the 50 states during the economic downturn currently under way, according to a forecast prepared by a Washington, D.C., consulting firm after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

"'Minnesota will perform a little worse than the nation,' said Charles de Seve, president of the American Economics Group, which issued the forecast.

"'It's strictly by the mix of industry and jobs in the state,' he said of the standards used in the forecast.

"American Economics Group gathered states into four tiers of economic performance in a U.S. economy that it said will limp from no growth to 1 percent declines in output for the next nine to 12 months. Minnesota was at the top of the fourth group--or the best of the worst performers."


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