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Winner of the Annual Blue Chip Economic Forecasting Award
and Regional Economic Forecasting Service:
In today's fast-changing business and political environment, econometric forecasting has become a crucial tool for governments, corporations, and financial institutions. American Economics Group, Inc. (AEG) offers the most clear and comprehensive econometric models on the market today, enabling clients to assess the risks and opportunities they face in an uncertain future.
All the Dynamic Variables
The regional models include nearly 75 additional equations for each state, which are updated quarterly. We have specifically designed these models to predict the shifts in a state's employment in manufacturing and other primary industries based on changes in relative wage rates and other regional variables. But even if relative wage rates don't change, firms might still shift production from high-cost to low-cost locations given certain economic conditionsa strong or overvalued dollar, tight monetary policy, low profit margins, low capacity utilization rates, or declining demand for the product.
A completely accurate forecast must consider all these interacting variables. AEG's regional models focus on shifts within the U.S., while the macroeconomic model bases its forecasts on key policy variables including monetary and fiscal policy, foreign developments, exogenous changes in productivity, and energy prices. This dynamic link between the models is one of the key strengths of AEG's forecasting service.
on Our Stellar Track Record
AEG Forecasts or Run Your Own Simulations
Most importantly, AEG will provide subscribers with the U.S. macroeconomic and regional models themselvessomething no other company offers. You can download the macroeconomic and regional workspaces and databases in EViews and run simulations on your own computer, using your own assumptions. By making all our equations available, we've taken the mystery out of which variables are important or what form of equation generates each prediction.
the Right Model
Basic Macro Model: This model contains nearly 50 stochastic equations that focus only on the key relationships of the economy. This allows users to conduct simulations easily by inputting their own macroeconomic assumptions about key policy variables such as changes in federal reserve policy, the economic impact of upcoming tax legislation, future changes in the stock market, major changes in energy prices, and fluctuations in the value of the dollar. The model's restricted size means users can easily trace the impact of these changes.
Expanded Macro Model: This more detailed model contains nearly 150 stochastic equations but has less simultaneous interaction. So users can effortlessly change forecasts for a given industry or put in their own industry assumptions (for example, production of fabricated metal products depends on housing, nonresidential construction, consumer purchases of household durables, and other macro variables, but not vice versa). This model contains all the necessary detailed data inputs for the regional modeling system: employment and industrial production for 2-digit manufacturing industries; employment, wage rates, and wages and salaries by 1-digit industries; detailed components of consumer spending (such as newspapers, tires, domestic airline travel); and detailed components of capital spending (such as office furniture, construction machinery, instruments).
Individual State Models: Most AEG state models contain nearly 75 stochastic equations. Each model has equations for manufacturing employment by 2-digit industry and non-manufacturing employment by 1-digit industry. It also has implicit wage rates by 1-digit industry (used to calculate wages and salaries), detailed components of personal income, relative wage rates, total employment and unemployment by state, and unemployment by metropolitan area. AEG can tailor any state model to a specific client need.
Combined Regional Models: AEG offers flexibility for subscribers who want to simulate more than one state or a particular group of states. With a customized group model, you can simulate all states within a region, specific states within a region, or all 50 states simultaneously. A group model can help you determine how changes in key macroeconomic variables would affect changes in employment and income among the states within their group. The model for all 50 states includes balancing algorithms to ensure that the sum of all employment, income, unemployment, and other variables equals the national totals.
Why Clients Prefer AEG's U.S. and Regional Forecasting Service
EViews is a windows-based economic analysis software package of Quantitative Micro Software.